蔡昉：中国的人口红利与经济增长，1978-2018

    《CHINA ECONOMIC JOURNAL》期刊2018年11卷3期刊登了中国社会科学院副院长蔡昉的文章：《Population dividend and economic growth in China，1978-2018》（中国的人口红利与经济增长，1978-2018）。文章认为，中国的经济增长与社会发展是人口增长率下降的主要因素，人口政策只是附加的消极因素。作者说明了改革如何促进劳动力的利用效率，揭示了劳动力资源的重新配置对提升劳动生产率和促进经济增长的作用，并建议深化户口制度改革。原文信息如下：
    Cai Fang：Population dividend and economic growth in China,
    1978–2018
    作者：Cai Fang（Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）
    来源：《CHINA ECONOMIC JOURNAL》，2018年第11卷3期，第243-258页
    Abstract：China witnessed important demographic transitions during the past 40 years. The significant decline in fertility rate, as a result of both policy change and economic factors, generated the so-called population dividends – rising proportion of working age population – during the past several decades. This paper demonstrates important channels through which broadly defined population dividends contribute to economic growth in China, by magnifying roles of capital, by improving labor quality, alongside increases in labor supply, and by strengthening labor mobility. As population aging now takes over from population dividends as the main demographic trend, it is possible for China to continue its strong growth by focusing on both the traditional growth factors, such as further reducing the proportion of agricultural workers, and new growth factors, such as further improving productivity by strengthening human capital and weakening institutional obstacles.
    Keywords：Demographic transition；population dividends；economic growth；China
    Jel classification：J13；J61；O110
    附件：Cai Fang：Population dividend and economic growth in China，1978–2018