[文萃]王爱俭 杜强：货币政策如何既稳增长又降杠杆

    原文标题：稳增长、降杠杆：政策悖论下央行货币政策如何选择
    摘 要：经济进入“新常态”以后我国经济增速大幅下滑，同时出现了杠杆率快速攀升的问题。而作为宏观调控主要手段之一的货币政策如何应对“稳增长”与“降杠杆”双重压力成为我国央行面临的重要难题。基于有向无环图(DAG)和SVAR模型，本文重点对我国货币政策、经济增长与杠杆率之间的相互作用机制进行了理论分析和实证研究，研究结果显示：货币供应量增加能够推动经济增长，但会导致杠杆率的持续快速上升；而利率的提高在短期内能抑制杠杆率的上升，但在长期内则会引起杠杆率的再次上涨；相比较而言，货币供应量比利率对杠杆率变动的影响更大。因此，在防范系统性风险的总体要求下，中央银行需要及时收紧货币供应总量实现“降杠杆”，但同时应当做好市场流动性管理，应加强结构性货币政策调控，以保持货币政策稳健中性，满足实体经济发展的需要，进而促进“稳增长”的实现。
    关键词：货币政策；经济增长；杠杆率；有向无环图
    Maintaining Economic Growth&Deleveraging:Howthe Central Bank Formulates Monetary Policy under Policy Paradox
    WANG Ai-jian, DU Qiang
    (1. Coordinated Innovation Center for Binhai Finance in China, Tianjin 300222, China; 2. School of Economics, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin 300222, China)
    Abstract：On the “new normal”, China’s economic growth dropped sharply and the leverage rose rapidly. Under the current situation, “maintaining economic growth” and “deleveraging” become vital for China’s central bank. Based on DAG and SVAR model, this paper analyzes the interaction between monetary policy, economic growth and leverage in China by theoretical and empirical research. The result show that the increase of money supply can promote economic growth, but it will lead to a sustained and rapid increase of leverage; the increase of interest rates can inhibit the rise in leverage in the short term, but will cause the leverage ratio to rise again in the long run; and the impact of money supply on leverage is greater than interest rate. Therefore, under the requirement of preventing systemic risk, the central bank needs to tighten the total amount of money supply timely to control leverage. At the same time, it should also manage the market suitably and strengthen structural monetary policies so as to maintain a prudent monetary policy, which contribute to economic growth.
    Key words：monetary policy; economic growth; leverage; Directed Acyclic Graphs
    中图分类号：F830.31
    文献标识码：A
    文章编号：1005-1007(2018)03-0026-12
    收稿日期：2017-09-21
    基金项目：国家社科基金重大项目(17ZDA100)；国家社科基金青年项目(17CJY058)。
    作者简介：王爱俭，女，中国滨海金融协同创新中心主任，教授，博士生导师，主要从事货币政策与汇率政策研究；杜强，男，天津财经大学经济学院博士生，主要从事货币政策研究。
    期刊责任编辑：王丽英
    

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