中国旅游产业对国民经济的贡献研究

    基金：国家社科基金（08BJY037）; 教育部博士点基金（200805581046）、教育部人文社会科学研究项目（09YJC630233）; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助
    摘要：文章采用旅游增加值剥离测算法估算2000～2008年中国大陆31个省级单位的旅游产业增加值,并测量旅游产业增加值对国民经济的贡献率和拉动幅度,旨在分析旅游产业在国民经济中的地位。结论有三：第一,我国旅游产业以高于国内生产总值的增长速度快速成长,波动较大且存在地区差异;第二,旅游产业的发展与国民经济的整体发展水平密切相关,在以旅游产业作为先导产业的省份中,旅游产业对国民经济的拉动作用较为显著;第三,我国大部分地区的旅游产业对GDP贡献率主要集中在3%～8%,而拉动系数则保持在0.5至1.5个百分点之间。
    The development of tourism industry plays a significant role in the national economy structure adjustment and the optimization of the industrial structure. However, the status of tourism industry in the national economy is still a controversial topic. This paper aims at addressing this issue by examining the contribution and stimulation of tourism industry to the national economy. In order to have a more accurate measurement of the added value of tourism industry, the study presented in this paper divides the added-value of tourism into six sectors of transportation, post and telecommunication, commerce, catering, lodging industry and the social service by comparing the structure of inbound and domestic tourism income, as well as the industrial division of tourism in the input-output table of national economic statistics. Furthermore, due to the differences among the consumption of the inbound tourism, domestic urban tourism and domestic rural tourism, this study divides the added value of these three sectors into three parts. This added value of tourism industry, as well as its contribution and stimulation to the national economy of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in mainland China from 2000 to 2008 was estimated to analyze the position of tourism industry in the national economy. The study concludes that firstly, China＇ s tourism industry grows faster than the national GDP, with obvious regional difference and fluctuation. Secondly, the development of tourism industry in China is closely related to the development of national economy and plays an important role in some regions where tourism is the pillar industry. Thirdly, the contribution of tourism industry to GDP ranges from 3% to 8%. The stimulation ranges from 0.5% to 1.5% in most provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities of mainland China. The present study improved the relevant statistical method to estimate the added value of tourism industry in China, as well as the contribution and stimulation of tourism industry to the n
    关 键 词：旅游产业 增加值 国民经济 贡献率 拉动
    tourism industry added value national economy contribution rate fuel
    分 类 号：F59
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